Issue 9, 2021

Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050

Abstract

Rechargeable batteries are a key enabler to achieve the long-term goal to transform into a climate-neutral society. Within this transformation, battery costs are considered a main hurdle for the market-breakthrough of battery-powered products. Encouraged by this, various studies have been published attempting to predict these, providing the reader with a large variance of forecasted cost that results from differences in methods and assumptions. This article creates transparency by identifying 53 studies that provide time- or technology-specific estimates for lithium-ion, solid-state, lithium–sulfur and lithium–air batteries among more than 2000 publications related to the topic. The relevant publications are clustered according to four applied forecasting methods: technological learning, literature-based projections, expert elicitations and bottom-up modeling. Method-specific assumptions are analyzed in-depth and discussed with regard to their results and empirical evidence. Further, 360 extracted data points are consolidated into a pack cost trajectory that reaches a level of about 70 $ (kW h)−1 in 2050, and 12 technology-specific forecast ranges that indicate cost potentials below 90 $ (kW h)−1 for advanced lithium-ion and 70 $ (kW h)−1 for lithium-metal based batteries. Recent studies show confidence in a more stable battery market growth and, across time-specific studies, authors expect continuously declining battery cost regardless of raw material price developments. However, large cost uncertainties are found to exist on technological and chronological levels that will remain a key challenge for researchers and industry in the future.

Graphical abstract: Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050

Supplementary files

Article information

Article type
Review Article
Submitted
20 May 2021
Accepted
29 Jun 2021
First published
02 Aug 2021
This article is Open Access
Creative Commons BY-NC license

Energy Environ. Sci., 2021,14, 4712-4739

Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050

L. Mauler, F. Duffner, W. G. Zeier and J. Leker, Energy Environ. Sci., 2021, 14, 4712 DOI: 10.1039/D1EE01530C

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